Six indicators that reflect how the real estate sector and walks toward recovery

Here we review the indicators that have been known in recent weeks and already showing growth in sales, stabilizing prices and increased construction. That is, the pattern of improvement of this activity will glimpsing First demand grows, then the price adjustment is applied and finally begins to increase supply. Yes, the experts urge caution and warn that it will be a slow process, especially for the economic and employment instability still facing the country.

INDICATORS TO INVITE SOME OPTIMISM

1- INE: home sales rise by 5.4% yoy in May

Housing sales increased 5.4% in May from the same month in 2013 and now number three consecutive months of gains (after ten months of declines). This rise was mainly due to sales of second-hand properties.

Specifically, in May 28.124 operations were recorded, according to provisional data from the Statistics on Transfer of Property Rights (STPR) published by the National Statistics Institute (INE). Of total homes passed, 90% are free and 10% protected, while 38.7% new and 61.3% used.

For Beatriz Toribio, responsible Fotocasa.es studies, these data show that “the Spanish housing market is slowly recovering pulse.” “The improvement in the purchases confirms stabilization toward which the market, which is a major breakthrough after years of stagnation and lack of good news,” he adds.

The annual rally of May is the third in a row after experienced in March and April, when home sales rose more than 22% and 5%, respectively.

It should be noted that real estate purchases rose less in all communities in Castile-La Mancha (-15.2%), Galicia (-6.0%) and Madrid (-5.5%). The largest increases occurred in the Balearic Islands (33.1%), Navarra (32.9%) and Cantabria (30.4%).

Promotion 2: the sale of homes soars 48.4% in the first quarter

The latest sales data released by the Ministry of Public Works showed a strong increase in transactions in the first quarter. Specifically, home sales grew by 48.4% during the first quarter of 2014 over the same period of 2013, to the 81,358 operations.

Yes, despite being such a positive thing has shades because, as explained Promoting the fourth quarter of 2012 and first of 2013 were atypical by the end of the tax relief and the increase in VAT.

3 foreign acquisitions rose by 27.2% in the first quarter

The interest of foreign investors in the Spanish property market has grown strongly in recent months. Specifically, sales of private housing by foreigners grew by 27.2% in the first quarter and represented 19.4% and the total operations.
By nationality, buyers have more weight on total strangers are British (13.8%), followed by French (10.5%), Russians (8.4%), German (7.5%) and Belgians (6.9%).

4 Construction in Spain, the second highest increase in the euro zone

Another fact that indicates changes in the field of housing is to be built again in Spain. Specifically, the production of the construction sector rose 4.8% in April, the second highest increase of both the European Union (EU) and the euro zone, according to data released by the EU statistics office Eurostat. With this increase the Spanish construction chains and six months of gains.

In the whole of the eurozone this sector grew by 0.8% over the previous month. Among the countries for which data are available for April 2014, on-month developments occurred in Slovenia (6.7%), Spain (4.8%) and Portugal (4.5%), while declines were more pronounced in Poland (-5.4%), Romania (-4.7%) and Slovakia (-2%).

If the data are compared with the same period last year, Spain’s descata still registering a takeoff of 53.4% ​​followed by Slovenia (+ 48.8%), Hungary (+ 27.2%) and Poland (+13 , 3%); while larger drops are accumulated to Portugal (-9%), Romania (-6.8%), Slovakia (-5.1%) and Italy (5%).

5-Tins: falling prices slows to 3% in June
The housing prices continued to fall in June slowing down to 3% year on year compared with 4% in May, according to the index Tins.

Specifically, the General IMIE Tins index showing a setting of 39.7% from max 2007 June softened their prices drop rate to be at 1378 points.
The General index remains at levels of August 2003 and is only 0.5% below the 1,384 points that ended 2013.

Tins maintained its forecast that by the end of 2014 the annual decline in the index is close to zero.

6-Evaluation Society: become cheaper by 2.3% in the second quarter

The average price of all new and used housing stood at 1,328 euros per square meter in the second quarter of 2014, representing a fall of 2.3% over the same period of 2013 Although the price continues to fall year on year does so at a slower rate (recall that in the second quarter of last year fell by 15%).

Moreover, according to this analysis, households are already expensive by 4.5% if the data are compared to the first quarter.

ASK THE EXPERTS CAUTION AND STILL NOT SEE TURNAROUND

Toribio Fotocasa.es, insists that it is still early to talk about reversal or adjustment so that the recovery will be key bank finance and labor market trends. “Credit is still very limited and we have seen that in April, despite the advance of purchases, he fell in mortgage lending. This is because those who are leading the movement that the sector are foreign and small-medium investors with liquidity, “he says.

“Until we improve funding and, above all, the levels of unemployment and job instability, the housing market will not recover,” concludes Toribio.

Meanwhile, Manuel Gandarias believes that improving the purchases are “good news to be taken into account, but with some caution, since they must keep raising sales in the coming months to say that the number of operations Spain stabilizes and begins to grow in a sustained manner. “

To do this, “should also continue improving the most relevant macroeconomic variables and mortgage should start flowing more normally, keeping the lines of responsibility and required solvency,” he adds.

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